Civil war crisis in Syria has been seen the worst and failure of peace talks initiated by international mediators shrinks the mind to find answer to question, how can the peace be restored in Syria? Five years’ long civil war has killed 470000 civilians including innocent children and women. Bombing on crowded cities is war crime, and a grave human rights violation. Half of the country is pre-war population, and more than 11 million are on the run including 4.8 million Syrian forced to seek refuge outside the country and other 6 million are internally displaced people, leaving their homes for safety. Recent bombing on Aleppo city has intensified the situation from bad to the worst. The civilian seems to be left with no option except to fight or flee from the country.
While analyzing the five years of anti-government demonstration began from March 2011, as part of the Arab Spring, the most frequently asked questions remained as, why the conflict prolonged more than its natural life span by leaving its adverse effects. Secondly, why peace efforts kept on failing? And thirdly, how could have the peace be restored?
The possible factor which worsens the civil war crisis is the external influence other than United Nations. Russia has publically announced to provide full fledge support to Assad regime but contrary to this, Americans seeks settlement of crisis without Assad and presumes it as the only democratic settlement. Conflict influenced by external forces also makes a fuss of other communities involved in war crimes to seek help from external sources because Syrian war is not going on between the Assad regime and Daesh fighters because some other rebel tribes affected by war are now brutally involved in fighting somewhere against Bishar Ul Assad and somewhere against Daesh.
An analysis of civil war study and peacemaking efforts done by United Nation since 1945, suggests that peace has been possible between two parties only if grassroots level support is available but when multi-sides of the conflict is worsened and both the parties along with ethnic militant units are misguided by external influence, the peacemaking efforts keep failing.
Democratic peace theory assumes, most of the peacemaking efforts led by UNO and bigger states should be democratic in nature which not only involves both the parties and international peacekeeping troops to restore and maintain ceasefire but also initiate campaigns involving civil societies and local leaderships to achieve grassroots level support. However in case of Syrian crisis, such a development is rarely seen during last five years. One reason is both the parties, Assad government and The Daesh want to achieve victory at any cost regardless to the ceasefire ever brokered and implemented by UNO which allows minimum space for civil societies and other international non-governmental organizations to lead campaign for the restoration of peace at grassroots level. Millions of people are fleeing due to bombing on densely populated areas further entrenching differencing and hatred against each other.
Alongside this, foreign sponsors not only make resolution of a conflict as assumed by mediators more difficult but their actions are also fortified a stalemate to ceasefire which prolongs the circle of violence. Their logistic assistance made fighters on the ground stretchy to losses and to the detriment of millions fleeing the country; their support allowed fighters to become independent of local support, which is usually a decisive factor in continuation of civil wars. Another radical presumption to restore peace is maintaining balance of power between both sides after when ceasefire has achieved. Contrarily, Russia has doubled military and political support for Assad, the US remained undecided about his opposition, reluctant to send troops and distrustful even of weapons deliveries.
Post civil war scenario as seen in case of Syria is more tragic and complex. Subsequently, Syria disobeys basic civil-was rule. Some researchers and peacemaking analysts portray, a speedy resolution as followed by UNO peacemaking efforts could have been possible, especially if Assad was willing to share power and a third party was committed to maintain peace and security. Unfortunately, now the conflict has ballooned. And experts foresee very worst scenario of post civil war victory. The situation will turn worst if one side in the conflict gains total victory because they fear, post-victory retaliation is very genuine. This prospect drives losers to fight harder than they may otherwise do even if one’s own victory is not assured. As explained earlier, Syrian conflict is multi-sided; this also extremely involves ethnic clout. Likely, in case of Iraq war, Americans and its allies gained total victory but post-war scenario during Arab Springs was totally different and balance of power within Iraq could not be sustained. Both Russia and America have to find a way to make war unsustainable and peace a better prospect for those sustaining violence. Otherwise, uniting to only defeat Daesh will not create lasting peace in Syria.